中国大中型造纸企业技术创新机制探讨

建立和健全大中型企业以技术创新为核心的技术进步的内在机制 ,保障提高技术创新的绩效是目前亟待解决的问题。本文根据 2 0 0 0年中国科技统计年鉴中的数据 ,对大中型造纸企业在技术创新方面存在的主要问题进行分析 ,就如何完善其动力机制和运行机制提出建议     

Sanov meets Cramér again

We introduce a new method for proving large-deviation principles (LDPs). This method amounts to "mixing" a collection of LDPs with a sequence of probability measures that obeys itself an LDP. As an illustration, we construct from empirical measures a sequence of capacity-valued maps that can be considered as an indexed collection of LDPs. The index 1 coincides with Sanov's theorem. By taking a Poisson mixture we establish a new connection with Cramér's theorem.     

蒙代尔-弗莱明模型在发展中大国的适用与延伸

M-F模型是开放经济宏观经济学的基本模型,其存在的缺陷和局限是理论拓展的主要方向。本文对M-F模型的前提假定和分析过程作出了放松和修正,使其适用于发展中大国的情形。并在M-F模型的货币政策效应分析基础上,提出M-F模型在发展中大国的延伸分析方法,即Semi-M-F模型分析方法,指出发展中大国的货币政策是部分起作用的。最后,对Semi-M-F模型分析方法在中国的应用进行评述。     

When to accept a sequence of gambles

When is a sequence of gambles, which is initially rejected eventually accepted? The eventual acceptance is defined as a pair property between the utility function and the sequences of gambles. A sequence of gambles is accepted when the gambles follow a large deviation principle and the utility function is non-satiated and bounded from below in a certain way. The number of gambles required for acceptance is computed.     

基于截尾分布理论预测开放式基金大额赎回量

提出了开放式基金的巨额赎回量和大额赎回量的概念，将复合泊阿松分布和截尾分布理论运用在大额赎回量概率计算之中，得到了计算公式。由于开放式基金流动性风险主要来自于大额赎回量，因此使用截尾分布方法预测未来近期的大额赎回量更合适。推导出了正态分布下大额赎回量的期望和方差计算公式。为基金管理人合理规避这种流动性风险提供了一种预测方法。     

Probability theory in fuzzy sample spaces

This paper tries to develop a neat and comprehensive probability theory for sample spaces where the events are fuzzy subsets of The investigations are focussed on the discussion how to equip those sample spaces with suitable -algebras and metrics. In the end we can point out a unified concept of random elements in the sample spaces under consideration which is linked with compatible metrics to express random errors. The result is supported by presenting a strong law of large numbers, a central limit theorem and a Glivenko-Cantelli theorem for these kinds of random elements, formulated simultaneously w.r.t. the selected metrics. As a by-product the line of reasoning, which is followed within the paper, enables us to generalize as well as to bring together already known results and concepts from literature.Acknowledgement. The author would like to thank the participants of the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory for the intensive discussion of the paper. Especially he is indebted to Professors Diamond and Höhle whose remarks have helped to get deeper insights into the subject. Additionally, the author is grateful to one anonymous referee for careful reading and valuable proposals which have led to an improvement of the first draft.This paper was presented at the 23rd Linz Seminar on Fuzzy Set Theory, Linz, Austria, February 5–9, 2002.     

生态位理论在旅游地竞争中的应用研究——以皖南三座名山为例

生态位理论已经成为生态学研究的热点之一，在许多领域得到广泛的应用，尝试将生态位理论引入旅游地竞争中，提出旅游地生态位包括两个方面：一是生态单元的状态，如游客数量、环境容量、资源开发量、旅游收入等；二是生态单元对环境的现实影响力和支配力，如游客年增长量、旅游收入年增长量、资源消耗量等。两者的综合体现了特定旅游生态单元在旅游生态系统中的相对地位和作用，即旅游地生态位。在此基础上，以位于皖南的黄山、九华山、齐云山三座名山为例，提出旅游地竞争的生态位扩充策略和生态位分离策略，不仅为国内其他旅游地竞争提供借鉴，并且充实了旅游地竞争理论。     

广州-茂名铁路换碴施工技术

文章介绍了有关在广州-茂名铁路运用大型养路机械进行更换石碴施工的技术和经验。     

云南第二个百万人口大城市规划设想

本文通过对建立云南第二个百万人口大城市———个开蒙城市群———的必要性和可行性以及其空间结构、职能分工的分析 ,探讨了我国西部地区在用地用水等自然条件受到较大限制的情况下 ,壮大中心城市实力 ,完善区域城镇体系 ,推动城市化整体进程的有效途径     

上市方式、大股东持股与民营上市公司的绩效

企业上市可以采取直接上市（IPO）和间接上市（买壳上市等）两种方式。本文考察了民营上市公司的不同上市方式下大股东持股与公司绩效间的关系。研究发现，间接上市的民营企业的大股东持股对公司绩效没有影响，而直接上市的民营企业的第一大股东持股与公司绩效存在正的线性关系，前5大股东持股与公司绩效呈非线性的U形关系。当考虑大股东持股的内生性时，发现间接上市的大股东持股与公司绩效互不影响，而直接上市的大股东持股与公司绩效互为正相关。